Predicting, prognosticating, and fortune telling—they are one and the same. Biliary atresia
(BA) consistently brings misfortune to the lives of children unfortunate enough to have it.
Before the invention of the portoenterostomy procedure by Dr. Kasai in the 1960s, the
misfortune was indeed great—100% mortality in early childhood—and fortune telling was,
therefore, extremely easy. Dr. Kasai's invention substantially reduced the misfortune due to
BA: a child with BA could expect an extension of life outside of early childhood with about …